(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Investors in Europe are headed for a short week with US inflation and quarterly results from several major banks as the main focus.
Most of the European stock exchanges are closed on Monday due to Easter Monday, after the stock markets were also closed on Friday due to Good Friday. Wall Street will reopen on Monday, so we can answer the job numbers from last Friday.
In March 236,000 jobs were added. Analysts expected 238,000 jobs. Unemployment was 3.5 percent.
Rabobank market analyst Philip Marey noted a slowdown in growth in the private sector, “but still not enough.”
He thinks that, based on this report, the Fed will decide to raise interest rates another 25 basis points in May. Wage growth fell from 4.6 to 4.2 percent year-on-year, slightly better than the 4.3 percent expected, “but the Fed wants wage growth of just over 3 percent, so that’s still too high.” “.
The macroeconomic agenda will be quite full next week, but the focus will be on the end of the week. US wholesale stocks will start on Monday. On Tuesday, the focus will be on Chinese consumer and producer prices, along with European retail sales.
There will be important US inflation data for March on Wednesday. The recent increases in oil prices are fueling concerns that inflation could remain high for a prolonged period and that central banks may need to intervene again.
The market currently estimates the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in May at 71.2 percent, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The rest have a pass on the spot.
In fact, ING believes that the Fed has finished turning off the money spigot. “And that alone is important support for investors,” analysts at the bank said.
According to CMC, it is clear that the Fed is most likely not ready to cut interest rates, while the market is increasingly pricing in a rate cut. “Inflation has to fall much further from current levels and that’s not obvious right now.”
There will also be German inflation figures on Thursday and investors will also get an idea of the OPEC oil cartel’s monthly report. OPEC+ announced last week that it would cut oil production by more than a million barrels a day, just when the United States is likely to want to replenish its strategic oil supplies. The cartel is taking this step as a precautionary measure to stabilize the oil market, it was said. In response, oil prices rose sharply.
Also, the market will pay attention to US producer prices and weekly aid requests on Thursday.
On Friday, US Retail Sales and US Consumer Confidence will be on the menu. There is also a French inflation figure.
It promises to be a quiet week in Belgium. Only Fagron will publish figures on Thursday.
It’s not much different in the Netherlands, with only a few annual meetings and RoodMicrotec and ForFarmers figures on April 13 and TomTom on April 14.
In the US, Delta Airlines will open its first quarter books on Thursday. Banks Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Citigroup will follow on Friday.
Source: ABM Financial News
From Beursplein 5, the ABM Financial News editorial team closely follows events on the stock exchanges, and the Amsterdam Stock Exchange in particular. The information in this column is not intended to be professional investment advice or a recommendation to make certain investments.